August 13, 2019 posted by

Ever wonder if Stratospheric sudden warming was an escape of heat into space? Quite remarkable sudden shift away from antartcic continent begins about 12th. You cannot post new topics in this forum. THat would cause less fronts? I wrote about it early in November that year here. That’s what appears to have happened.

Increased convection getting to some decent high altitude.. Snow risk across UK mid-month Image: This is the type of info that are meant to be shared around the web. Planetary wave activity as evidenced by EP flux for october was anomalously negative which might help explain any delay if the sspv is later getting to breakdown this year. This years Ozone Hole is currently looking very elongated and small for the time of year. I don’t have twitter but I often follow Amy H Butler who quite often brings up things to do with Antarctica. Everybody assumes that the Earth is in a static ellipse around the Sun in our Solar system in the same old place all the time year after year in the Milky way galaxy in the Universe. I can read all gif files except the animationn does not work stays on first pic always and does not move.

Must be synopticaly induced. This is a bit like an atmospheric volcano. Wish I had a pat answer CS The warming being speculated about though is stratospheric – I dont think there’s necessarily netwsather direct link between warm anomaly in the stratosphere and warm anomaly in the troposphere.

With the sun near a solar max not a great one and the winds westerly throughout the stratosphere, one might expect one to occur this winter. CoastalStorm22 We’ve dropped from I’m guessing the two are linked? Atmospheric Height low over Antartica and high around southern ocean.? You may be asking why it is called a warming then, if it lead to cold conditions?

Warm autumn day in Hobart sets year record Thursday May 15, – Some are predicting that the cold snap may well last for a while: Reading the NW thread it seems this SSW wont be striong enough to break apart the PV and it may well be a second wave that evetually does.


Evaporation will amount to as much as wztch millimetres per day in some areas, about twice the normal evaporation netweayher for this time of year, more typical of April, just like this week’s temperatures.

However the complex dynamics of waveshorizontal or vertical in this situation watchh create a mixed response?

What you suggest is not impossible as large perturbations like this in the atmosphere will produce a change in Jetstream behaviour at the horizontal layer and will produce waves in response both vertically and horizontally. This warming we have just seen in the vortex – a rise of 30C – is a significant event The overall transformative affect on what happens in the troposphere, may be fairly modest though – for the time being anyway. Good luck to you in any case.

I guess that this primarily being a weather forum To be positive about current forecasts – they have come earlier this season than in previous seasons when we have been hoping for cold. Suggesting climate shift and changes to atmospheric circulation and chemistry?

In perspective – the vortex has been very strong. This will allow a warmer and weak southwesterly airflow to filter across the UK as the block across Western Greenland and Hudson Bay in Canada will not be strong enough to prevent the westerlies returning, and, the SSW in January will have reduced the strength of the residual polar vortex dramatically. As it compresses it warms, hence the stratospheric warming. Body 1 How does the jet stream work?

Stratospheric warming can be associated with splitting of the stratospheirc vortex.

Sudden stratospheric warming predicts the cold snap

SSW’s are on the increase in the NH. Enough info overload for you there, Crikey! Their normal daily range of temperature during August is 9. So this is different Just looking at some of those temps at the lower stratosphere layer hPa here curently DIAGRAM below is lower stratosphere hpa below the 10hPaupper stratosphere A warm anomaly in the SSW event at the hpa layer currently is minus deg c The cold anomaly tongues there on this map is minus 75 deg!

The rate of decline I wonder if it is correlated directly to the concentration of ozone in the collar region – I imagine it might be though I don’t have any data to back that up with. This is likely to act as a driver for Atlantic depressions to cross the country.


Sudden stratospheric warming predicts the cold snap « Reigate Grammar School Weather Station

Daytime stratospherif in the north will struggle to get much above zero while further south it will be slightly milder with temperatures in low single figures. You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Have a look at the this snap below.

The 10hPa has developed a strong meridonal flow Of wraming. That warm donut area anomaly is at the Jetstream level But looking at Cosmics animation, does this mean a big change in our weather is on the way. Strange spike on ozone hole charts at http: January 7,showing the breakdown of the polar vortex into three smaller vortices.

Crikeyyou may I have found the answer to what no one else has been able to answer on the Tassie Forum.

There does look to be a massive positive height anomaly right around the Antartic stratosphere see snaps below Wonder whats going on? Categories Categories Select Category Analysis autumn climate climate change cloud collection cold data dust El Nino flood Forecast front hazards heat high altitude balloon launch high pressure hurricane july learning spot May monthly summary pollution pressure rainfall rapid cyclogenesis Reigate satellite sea set-up site status snow status stingjet storm summary sunny sunshine temperature thunderstorm Uncategorized warm weather alert weather summary welcome wind.

I read sunny days report for this time period of last week July and she has noted a quiet sun at this time period This is however speculative but worth following. I am not aware of any influence from the mesosphere myself – dont doubt it at all.